What is the state of evidence on SDG 13 outcomes in low- and middle-income countries?

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provide the organising agenda for global development, with SDG 13 in particular calling for climate action. While developed countries bear primary responsibility for the climate crisis, climate change is potentially devastating for low- and middle-income countries (L&MICs). There is a need for rigorous evidence about which programmes and policies are most effective in achieving SDG13 targets in L&MICs. The Development Evidence Portal (DEP), maintained by the International Initiative for Impact Evaluation, is a database that gathers such evidence in the form of impact evaluations and systematic reviews focused on L&MICs.

We analyse data from the DEP to answer the following question: What is the state of the evidence base for planet-focused SDGs—particularly SDG 13—and where are the gaps in the evidence? Understanding the state of the evidence can help policymakers find relevant evidence to inform decisions, and can guide the research community in filling key evidence gaps.

We find there has been surprisingly few rigorous evaluations assessing impact of climate-related interventions on L&MICs, with the notable exception of studies on Chinese environmental policy. The number of China-focused evaluations measuring SDG 13 outcomes in 2022 alone (n = 286) exceeds the number of evaluations focused on all other L&MICs combined since 1990 (n = 154). The situation is similar for SDGs targeting sustainable cities (SDG 11) and responsible consumption/production (SDG 12). Evidence bases for SDGs focused on life below water and on land (SDGs 14-15) are very limited.

We call for renewed efforts to apply rigorous evaluation methods to climate-related policies and to measure key SDG 13 indicators in L&MICs. To fill this large evidence gap, we will need innovative, low-cost evaluation methods using remote sensing and non-randomized designs.