Systemic evaluation of energy transition pathways

Transitions of energy systems towards carbon neutrality in 2050 are needed to keep global temperature increase around 1.5°C.
However, energy transition pathways should be evaluated ex-ante to avoid negative consequences on natural, economic and human systems and boosts cobenefits aligned with sustainable development goals. In order to be unbiased, this evaluation should be systemic, addressing aspects through the socioeconomic, environmental and political dimensions of sustainable development.
It is key that the systemic evaluation integrates local circumstances (e.g. surrounding ecosystems, natural resources endowment, production and economic profile, population characteristics and cultural aspects) and use them as the baseline. Global evaluation through the use of average impacts should be avoided, since “averages” mask the diversity across regions.
Systemic evaluations can be done by using quanti- and/or qualitative indicators. These indicators “measure” the potential impact on the aspects to be evaluated with respect to the baseline.
In the case study for Argentina presented in this paper, energy scenarios that achieve carbon neutrality in 2050 are evaluated through a set of socioeconomic, environmental and political indicators. Besides GHG emissions, quantitative indicators cover energy and investment costs; stranded assets; energy use per capita and per GDP; job creation; energy mix diversification; use of land, water and materials; air quality; and solid and nuclear waste. In addition, qualitative indicators cover the potential for domestic technology and local development; social-environmental conflicts; and the contribution to energy sovereignty.
Energy scenarios dominated by renewable energy and green hydrogen show lower overall costs but higher use of land and materials than the BAU scenario dominated by fossil fuels. In addition, renewable energy scenarios show greater potential for job creation, technology and local development, and lower potential to social conflicts.
In summary, systemic, ex–ante, evaluation of energy scenarios could be a powerful tool for policy makers to design energy policies.